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It's Breeders' Cup weekend, and once you get past the hypocricy and false advertising, you might find some good value for your wagering dollar.
Print this storyMake no mistake — these are not the "World Championships" as hyped. The world's best horse, Sea The Stars, is sitting home in Europe relaxing. The best North American 3-year old, Rachel Alexandra, is afraid to run in the BC, so is also sitting things out, and the top older mare is running in a race against males. America's best turf horse, Gio Ponti, is running in an all-weather surface race, so not many champions will be crowned this weekend. Goldikova is the world's best miler, and she should win her BC contest, though she ran third in her most recent effort. Gamblers don't care about the quality of the field, just the return value on the financial investment they make, so let's see if we can narrow the fields a bit. Pay no attention to the morning line odds. If you've ever had the misfortune to listen to Jon White for five minutes, you know not to rely on anything he says or does, and he did the morning line. By the way, on-line betting is now legal in Illinois and a lot of the services are offering great deals. Check out some of the sites by going to HRTV.com, TVG.com, youbet.com, twinspires.com. They're all trying to get the Illinois market established, and so they give you bonus money and free bets to help you enjoy the races without leaving home. FRIDAY RACES (AW = all-weather surface) Marathon (Mile and three-quarters, AW) — Mastery ran the worst race of his career the only other time he was on an all-weather track, but he should still win this one. Father Time, Black Astor and Cloudy's Knight look to be the strongest competition. Juvenile Fillies Turf (One mile, grass) — Little Langtry may have a slight edge here, but I really like LaNez. Junia Tepzia should be third, Potosina fourth and Rose Catherine fifth. Juvenile Fillies (One mile and a sixtheenth, AW) — Blind Luck is my choice here with three wins in four starts. Always a Princess makes for a good exacta, with Bickersons right there on the strength of great recent works. Negligee has also worked well, Connie and Michael is unbeaten, Beautician looks strong and Devil May Care has won both her races. Filly and Mare Turf (Mile and a quarter, grass) — Magical Fantasy is on her home track and has been doing exceptionally well on it. Midday has been running in group 1 races in Britain and doeing a great job and Visit may be peaking right now. Filly and Mare Sprint (Seven furlongs, AW) — Ventura is the defending champion and probably will repeat, but not easily. Sara Louise beat Rachel Alexandra a year ago and will race on a synthetic surface for the first time this weekend. Informed Decision and Seventh Street had shots at an upset. Ladies' Classic (Mile and an eighth, AW) — This should have been Zenyatta against Rachel Alexandra, but neither are in the field. I really like Careless Jewel, but I don't see her even finishing in the money. Cocoa Beach is ready to run a huge race and that might be good enough to pull this one out. Lethal Heat is one of the best longshots on the board all day and would make a great exacta with Cocoa Beach. Music Note is terrific and Rainbow View has shown outstanding form in Europe. SATURDAY RACES Juvenile Turf (One mile, grass) — A very tough one to call. Interactif is my choice, but Kera's Kitten is undefeated and Pounced has been strong in France and England. Gallant Gent is listed at 30-1, I suppose because of no previous races on the grass, but the gelding looks pretty fast to me. Turf Sprint (Six and a half furlongs, grass downhill) — I love this course and I think the way Noble Court has been going, he's going to love it enough to win this race. California Flag just ran this course at this distance, and put in the best effort of his career, so he deserves to be the favorite, though he was 10th in this race last year. Lord Shankakill has been running in the classiest company by far (including Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman and Delegator), so that alone puts him near the head of this group. Sprint (Six furlongs, AW) — Zensational deserves to be the favorite, and I think he'll win. However, this is a very competitive field and Gayego will be flying late and picking off tiring runners. Fleeting Spirit of Ireland has been running with class overseas and I'd love to see Capt. Candyman Can run well. Juvenile (Mile and a sixteenth, AW) — Lookin At Lucky is the best of these, but he drew post 13 in a 13-horse field. He's won all four of his prior races, but never by very much, so that post could be a problem. Pulsion has been improving every time he runs and lost to Lucky by less than two lengths in his last outing. Mile (One mile, grass) — Goldikova won this last year, and despite finishing third in France last month, she should win again this weekend. Zacinto finishes second quite often, but usually behind some of the world's best. Ferneley is one I really wouldn't have considered, but a guy I trust (one of about three in the world) says the horse is working so well that he might win this. Dirt Mile (One mile, AW) — Mastercraftsman has been running against Sea The Stars and his ilk on grass this year. Now he changes surface and gets easier company, so look for him to obliterate all opponents Saturday. Neko Bay is 20-1 on Jon White's goofy morning line, but though he's been running in lower class races, he's been getting faster and faster. Bullsbay has a shot at a top-three finish, as do Midshipman and Chocolate Candy. Turf (Mile and a half, grass) — Conduit won this race in 2008, but has only one win since then. The fact that he's been losing to Sea The Stars and Rip Van Winkle may have something to do with that. Conduit will probably defend his title. Why Gio Ponti is not running in this race is a puzzle, but if he wins the Classic, all will become suddenly clear. Anyhow, Spanish Moon, Dar Re Mi and Presious Passion should round out the superfecta. Presious Passion won a grade one on this course last month. Classic (Mile and a quarter, AW) — I'd love to see Zenyatta finish her career unbeaten in 14 races, but she's never run against males and never run this far. Who cares? I'll take her anyway, just by a head over Rip Van Winkle. Gio Ponti will be right there, as will Einstein and Richard's Kid. |
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